2011 Round 18 analysis. Plenty of drama in store going into the final round …

L1. Bushrangers finish top (first time ever, and incredibly, only the sixth team to finish top in the 18 years of L1). After that it’s just a mess. Stingers could lose the double chance if they lose. More so for Tigers. If Daysdale wins, they can replace Draught or Coodabeens in the five if either of those lose. But if both of them win, they could both grab a double chance if Tigers and/or Stingers lose. Four of the five R18 games affect the composition of the five.

Top 5 after R9 – Daysdale, Bushrangers, Draught, Devils, Tigers. My prediction (as below) – Daysdale out (correct at the moment), Devils out (correct), Aliens in (tragically wrong), Stingers in (correct). Not bad.

L2. Brewers finish top for the third time. Stingers play in the Qualifying Final. After that we’ve got Hawkesbury Bulls, Filthy Animals, Winton Swamp Things and Supreme Beings separated by percentage, then Square Bears a game behind with a strong percentage. The pivotal match is Bulls v Bears. If Bulls lose, they could lose not only the double chance, but also their place in the five. Animals are more vulnerable with a lower percentage, and then another step down to Things and Beings. The combinations are almost endless. For example, if Bears beat Bulls, that would allow Animals, Things and Beings to move up a place each if they won, while Bears would still miss out and drag Bulls down with them. Another example – Things could win but still lose their place if Beings win by a bigger margin – the percentage gap is only 0.3. Fun and games for all!

After R9 – Brewers, Things, Stingers, Beings, Bulls. Prediction – Beings out (correct at the moment), Bulls out (wrong at the moment), Animals in (correct at the moment), Bears in (wrong at the moment). So so, but could turn out perfect. Animals were 8^th on 3-6.

L3. Stingers will play Supernova in the Elimination Final, and Utter Bastards will play in the QF. Lager will retain top spot if they win against Bastards, but could be overtaken if they lose and Warrain Warriors win. A bit boring really.

After R9 – Bastards, Warriors, Stingers, Lager, Supernova. Prediction – Supernova out, Wonders in (both wrong). I think the crystal ball was fogged up when I saw that.

L4. Duff FC and Nungers play off for the double chance, with the loser into the EF. Duff could still grab top spot if Stingers and Far Canals lose, but neither of them can lose the double chance. Then we have Dirty Vultures in 5^th spot, one win and 6.74% ahead of Fallen Angels. Could Angels possibly make up that gap? According to my calculations, the difference is exactly 180 points, or 30 goals, of win/loss margin. So for Angels to unseat Vultures, their winning margin plus Vultures’ losing margin would have to be 180 points or greater. Angels are playing Wizards who scored 0.8 last week, while Vultures face 2^nd side Canals…

After R9 – Duff, Stingers, Far Canals, Nungers, Dirty Vultures. Prediction – No change (correct unless Vultures drop out). Brilliant.

L5. Stingers v South Park is huge. Stingers stay top if they win, and can’t go lower than 3^rd if they lose. Park could go top if they win, but could lose the double chance if they lose and North Shinboners win. In between is Boony who could also go to top or down to the EF. Then we come to Valley Valentinos in 5^th and Jungle Kings in 6^th positions. Valentinos stay in if they win, but drop out if they lose and J Kings win.

After R9 – Stingers, Shinboners, Boony, South Park, Newtown Kings. Prediction – Park out (wrong), Valentinos in (correct at the moment). It was a brave call on Valentinos – they were 9^th with a 2-7 record. So I’ll take a B+ for that.

L6. North Park finish top for the 3^rd time in the seven years of the league. Arden St Rodents play in the QF. Stingers will retain the double chance if they win, but could be displaced by Covenant Keepers if they lose and Keepers win. If Sonics stay 5^th, they will have displayed magnificent consistency over the last 3 seasons by finishing 10^th, 1^st & 5^th.

After R9 – Rodents, Park, Stingers, Keepers, Sonics. Prediction – Stingers out and Maggots in (both wrong). I’ll blame that on the new advantage rule.

It’s been a great season and there’s plenty more to come.

2011 Mid-season analysis. It’s been a tough nine rounds, with (at a guess) about 70% of teams struggling to put 21 players on the field in any given round. Of course the bye has been partly to blame, but the other big factor is that so many AFL sides are playing so many rookies this year, meaning established players on Sim lists are getting left out. It has been a last-man-standing season in Sim like no other. Statistically, since L6 started in 2005, it is the tightest overall season in history at the halfway mark. The average wins per top team is 7.00, the lowest figure ever, surpassing the 7.17 of 2006. It has been as high as 8.17 in 2009. The average wins per bottom team is 1.50, the highest figure ever after last year’s 1.33. Not surprisingly, it is the smallest differential between top and bottom ever – 5.50, beating last year’s 5.92. That figure was as high as 7.17 in 2009. The last two years have been the only two where no team has been winless at the halfway mark – there were 4 in 2007. For only the 7^th time out of 64 seasons, the top team in a league (L1 Daysdale) has only 6 wins. No team is going to suffer from the “9-0” curse this year – the closest was Arden St Rodents (L6) with 8-1. Three teams make their debut as halfway leaders – Daysdale (L1), Utter Bastards (L3) & Arden St Rodents (L6). In L2, Brewers have created some sort of record by being the halfway leader for 4 seasons in a row, with a 7-2 record each time. Sadly, they have succumbed to the curse of the halfway leaders by failing to land a cup from those three attempts. I suspect most L2 owners are thinking “Happy returns” for George. For the record, out of 58 completed seasons, the top team after Round 9 has gone on to win the cup only 10 times, a success rate of 17.2%. And it’s actually getting harder to achieve – it has only happened twice in the last 4 years. So to the halfway leaders – enjoy the throne now, because you’ll probably lose it by season’s end.

L1. Only 4 wins between top and bottom says it all. Absolutely anything could happen over the next 9 rounds. There’s no way any team could say with any confidence that they will make the five, let alone grab a double chance. There is a very big chance that percentage will play a part in shaping the five. Prediction for top five – Tigers, Bushrangers, Aliens, Draught, Stingers.

L2. The pork sword doesn’t seem too active so far, so we’ll rule Pigs out. That leaves 9 teams with 4 wins separating them. It’s the same as L1 – anything could happen. No team is kicking big scores consistently (except those who are playing Filthy Animals) and a lot of matches are being won with pretty average scores. Top five – Winton Swamp Things, Brewers, Filthy Animals, Stingers, Square Bears.

L3. There’s a gap of 6 points between 5^th & 6^th, which the chasing teams wouldn’t want to get any wider. There’s no doubting Utter Bastards are the surprise packet so far, and believe me, no-one is more surprised than me. Warrain Warriors score heavily and look to be the favourites at this stage. Top five – Utter Bastards, Warrain Warriors, Stingers, Lager FC, Windy Hill Wonders.

L4. The gap between 5^th and 6^th of 8 points plus 15% is almost big enough to suggest that the top five teams are settled. And I tend to agree. The top five – Duff, Stingers, Canals, Nungers & Vultures, are ranked perfectly from 1 to 5 as far as “points for” goes. There is really no evidence to suggest that things will change, so the prediction for the top five is – no change.

L5. Stingers look pretty safe for a double-chance, while Shinboners & Boony are probably safe in the five. South Park are still vulnerable due to percentage, and Kings will want to hang on to their small percentage advantage, because it will almost certainly decide who makes the five. Each of the bottom five have had their moments and it will only take a run of 3 or 4 wins in a row to see one or more of them make a charge. I’ll go out on a limb and predict Valentinos to make that charge and grab 5^th spot at the expense of South Park.

L6. It’s very hard to see Rodents losing a double-chance. For North Park, it’s nice sitting 2^nd, but it’s sobering to think 2 losses in a row could see you drop to 7^th. I’ll stick with Rodents & Park for top 2, then it’s a lottery with five teams separated by percentage. And you can’t entirely rule out Tigers who have won their last 2 and kicked the sweep last week. In a blanket finish I’m going for Sonics, Keepers and Maggots to fill the last 3 spots in the five.

Good luck. If the injuries keep mounting we’re all going to need it.