2010 Mid-Season Analysis. No team managed to get through the first half of the season undefeated. Best was South Park in L5 with 8 wins, followed by L6 Murrumba Maggots with 7.5. In fact the average wins for the top team in each league after round 9 – 7.25 – is the second lowest on record since we have had more than one league. Last year the average was 8.17 wins, so there has been a considerable tightening of the competition overall. Brewers L2 achieved a rare feat by topping the L2 ladder after round 9 for the last three years, each time with 7 wins. Only Greeneville in L1 has achieved the threepeat, way back in 1995-97. In L6 Murrumba Maggots continued the tradition of a different round 9 ladder leader each year. In the six years of L6, six different teams have been on top after round 9 – and the previous five have all lost the grand final! At the other end of the scale, South Park in L5 have been top in four of the seven years of the league and won the cup twice.

In the 52 completed league seasons of Sim Football, the top team after round 9 has still been on top after round 18 on 31 occasions, a success rate of 59.6%. The chances of making the grand final are even better – 34 from 52, or 65.4%. But when it comes to actually winning the cup, the odds plummet - only nine teams have gone on to win the cup after sitting top after round 9, a miserable 17.3% success rate. So the summary suggests that the current ladder leaders will more likely than not finish top after round 18, will more likely than not make the grand final, and will probably lose it.

L1. Bad omen. M & P Union have been top after round 9 on two previous occasions, and both times they went out of the finals in straight sets. Sorry Baz.

Looking at the ladder, we could have the extraordinary situation of having the top five teams all on 7 wins after round 10. If the rampaging Tigers beat out-of-form M & P, and Draught, Aliens & Coodas all beat lower-ranked opponents, 5^th place will be only percentage from top. And if Bushrangers in 6^th also win, you would have to think the other four teams are out of finals contention, as they would be at least 4 wins plus percentage out of the five. Of the top six, it’s anybody’s guess who could win the cup. Each team has had spells of good and bad form and it could come down to injuries and suspensions to separate them. Looking into my crystal ball, I think I can see Aliens defeating Tigers in a tight GF.

L2. As in L1, it appears the top six will fight it out for five places, with the other four teams at least 2 wins plus percentage away. Biggest surprise is the performance of Supreme Beings, winner of the cup for the last 3 years, sitting 9^th at 2-7. Can master owner Shane “Capper” Mohor perform another miracle and get Beings up for a crack at a 4^th consecutive cup? I suspect not. Of the top six, Guelphoids are probably lucky to be 6^th, having kicked just 36 points more than bottom-placed Pistons, but now look to have hit form and may take advantage of their good fortune in August. But the tea leaves say that Filthy Animals will triumph over Brewers in the GF.

L3. The top five are certainly favourites to stay there, with a 2-win gap back to 6^th, but percentage is the interesting thing. Stingers and Wannabes (6^th & 7^th) both have better percentages than Hamley Jackals and Supernova (4^th & 5^th) so the 2-game gap is not insurmountable. If Stingers beat Supernova in round 10 then things really start to get interesting. I suspect there are going to be quite a few crunch matches over the next 9 weeks, and the round 18 clash between Supernova and Jackals could hold the key to the entire season. A shuffle of the tarot cards revealed that the GF will be all the Ws, with Windy Hill Wonders pipping Warrain Warriors.

L4. This is clearly the tightest league, with only 4 wins separating top from bottom. Basically, no team is assured of making the five, and no team can be written off – Darley Bulls on the bottom are only one win from Far Canals at 5^th. The top four have got the healthiest percentages and would have to be favoured to stay in the five, which would make the battle for 5^th a six-horse race. Absolutely anything could happen over the next 9 weeks, but the dog entrails tell me that Dirty Vultures are going to have a big debut year by making the GF before going down to Stingers.

L5. South Park and Newtown Kings are pretty safe in the five, and Boony VB’s 7 wins should keep them there, although their form is patchy and they’ve had some fortunate wins. At the other end, Elevation and Jungle Kings are out of it. That leaves five teams to battle for two places. If North Shinboners can beat Warlocks in round 10 then it’s on for young and old. I have a feeling that positions in the five will still be for grabs come round 18. But it’s hard to go past a South Park v Newtown Kings GF with Park too strong on the day.

L6. The bottom two are out of contention and Croydon Tigers at 8^th are struggling but still an outside chance. Then we’ve got four teams on 5 wins, stretching from 4^th to 7^th, with Sydney Sonics 2 points clear in 3^rd place courtesy of their draw, which could prove to be a blessing or a curse by round 18. Murrumba Maggots and Arden St Rodents are probably safe to make the five, but by no means sure of a top-3 finish. Crunch games will be coming thick and fast from now on, starting with the round 10 clash between Stingers and Covenant Keepers. The stars are in alignment for a Rodents v North Park GF with Rodents getting home by a twitching nose.

29/08/09. All sorts of interesting contests in the various GFs, but you’d have to say the highlight is the dominance of George and Mark, who oppose each other in L3, L4 & L5, with George also in the L2 GF. Of course George has to contend with the Curse of the Dr McClelland Trophy Winner. Winners of the Doc have had a total of 28 teams representing them in the finals in the year they won. Of those, only 4 have won the cup. Make of that what you will.

L1. Tigers are going for the very rare threepeat of cups, and have also racked up their 4^th straight GF. A win would give Tigers their 5^th cup, just one behind Devils’ 6. M & P Union have 1 cup from 3 GFs, with two of those against Tigers in 2000/01 for one win each. An interesting fact emerges from this match. If Tigers win, it will mean the teams that finished 1 to 5 on the ladder also finish the finals in that order. In other words, 5^th was first eliminated, then 4^th, then 3^rd, and 2^nd lost the GF. Now you might think that that happens all the time, but you’d be dead wrong. From 46 seasons, it has happened only 3 times – L1 in 1998, L5 in 2007 and L2 in 2008. The two newest teams in the league – Coongulla Jacks & Redhot Buffalos - will be fighting for their first shield. It is also the first GF for both teams and someone will come away with their first piece of silverware.

L2. Supreme Beings are also trying for 3 cups in a row, and 4 from the last 5 years. It is also their 5^th consecutive GF, and the 2^nd time they have made the GF from the Elimination Final. Brewers have 1 cup from 3 GFs, and the pair have met once in the big one, with a win for Beings in 2005. In the shield, Guelphoids and Winton Swamp Things battle it out. Neither has won a shield – Guelphoids because this is the first year they have missed the five. Things have had an eventful 3 years in the league – lost shield GF in 2007, lost cup GF in 2008, back in the shield GF in 2009…

L3. The cup GF is a resumption of hostilities from last year, when Lager FC & Stingers played a draw before Lager won the replay. Lager have won 3 of the last 4 cups to lead the rest of the league by 2, while Stingers, in their 4-year history, are making their 3^rd consecutive appearance in the cup GF and will be hoping to break their duck. Leopold Lions won the very first L3 shield in 2002 but the silverware has eluded them ever since. Supernova won the shield in 2007. Whichever team wins will join Wannabes on 2 shields.

L4. Duff FC and Stingers have one cup each, Duff from 4 GFs and Stingers from 2. Their one GF clash was in 2007 when Duff triumphed. The winner will move to 2^nd on the cup tally, behind Fallen Angels’ 3. In the shield, Darley Bulls and Redhot Panthers are both vying for their 2^nd shield, with Bulls attempting to go back-to-back.

L5. Boony VB are trying to go back-to-back and join Rowville Rhinos on 2 cups. Stingers have an appalling finals record, having won just 1 of 8 cup finals, so there will be a bit of soul-searching down at Wrath Park for this game. Kaboomers and Rowville Rhinos clash for the right to be the leading shield winner, having both won one each.

L6. North Park are looking to assert their dominance in L6 by winning their 3^rd cup from 5 seasons. Standing in their way are Bacchus Bulls, whose previous GF experience was in the 2007 shield. Covenant Keepers will become shield leader if they go to 2 in their GF against Redhot Devils, who are trying for their 1^st after losing the GF last year.

29/07/09. For the third year in a row, round 18 sees the top five decided in only one league, L1. There are still chances for teams in seventh place to leap into the five if results fall their way.

L1.

Known – Coodabeens will play Devils in the Elimination Final (EF). Aliens, Tigers and M & P Union get the double chance.

Not Known – Top spot goes to the winner of Tigers v Aliens. The loser will probably drop to third.

Comment – The only match that has any significance is the battle for top and the week’s rest. Tigers claim a piece of the all time Sim record for consecutive Cup finals campaigns, equalling the record of 12 held by Devils (L1) from 1996 to 2007. Tigers started in 1998 and are still not out. There was another run begun in 1998 – that of the top team. Incredibly, beginning in 1998, only Devils or Tigers have finished top of the ladder after round 18. That’s 11 straight years between them, and the run will continue unless Aliens can knock off Tigers. And in researching this, another amazing fact has come to light. In 16 seasons of L1, only 4 teams have ever finished top! Tigers lead with 7 from Devils 4, Greeneville 3 and Coodabeens 2. There may be a tiny touch of bias here, but I think everyone would love to see some new blood at the top of the ladder. Go you Aliens!

L2.

Known – Supreme Beings will play in the EF. Filthy Animals, Brewers & Square Bears get the double chance.

Not Known. Fifth spot. It’s a classic “cascade” situation. If 5^th placed Pistons win, they stay 5^th. If Pistons lose, then all Hawkesbury Bulls have to do is win, and they grab 5^th. If Pistons and Bulls both lose, Guelphoids can leap from the depths of 7^th to claim the last spot in the five.

Comment – The top three situation is almost the same as that in L1. Filthy Animals and Brewers are 1-2 and they play each other for top possie (although it is possible that Brewers could win by a point or two and not make up the percentage gap). Bears can’t improve any further than 2^nd. In eight seasons so far, Supreme Beings have finished top 3 times, Square Bears twice, and Guelphoids, Brewers & Zsi Zsi Warriors once each. No team has finished top in two consecutive seasons.

L3.

Known – Lager FC finish top. Stingers get the double chance.

Not Known – The next three.

Comment – This is absolutely incredible. You could look at the ladder and say that Coongulla Pirates – sitting 3^rd – are safe in the five. And they probably are. But if Windy Hill Wonders (6^th) beat them and kick a big score (35 goals last week) then all hell could break loose. The permutations are many, and all sorts of different outcomes could eventuate. Pirates can’t improve their position, but they could drop out if they lose and Hamley Jackals & Leopold Lions win. Jackals have their fate in their own hands – win (against 2^nd team Stingers) and they are safe and could score a double chance. Lose and they could drop out. Lions cling to 5^th by less than 2%, and even a win over top team Lager couldn’t guarantee they hold their place. Then we come to Supernova in 7^th place. In a wonderful quirk of the draw, we see the top 3 play the next 3, and if results went according to ladder order, Lions and Wonders would lose, and Supernova would win and snatch 5^th spot. Very interesting. We’ve had five top teams in 8 seasons including this, with Entropy, Coongulla Pirates & Lager FC on 2 each, and Wannabes & & Windy Hill Wonders on one.

L4.

Known – The top four – Fallen Angels, Duff FC, Stingers & Altona Arachnids.

Not Known – Fifth. The double chances. Most things.

Comment – Wizards are 5^th and will stay there if they beat Redhot Panthers. But if they lose, Darley Bulls will take 5^th if they can overcome Myrniong Gophers. And the Bulls v Gophers game is even more interesting, with brothers as the opposing owners. I suspect Ethan (Gophers) might enjoy dashing big brother Tyler’s chance to make the top five. And in another great quirk of the draw, the top 4 play each other. Angels, Duff & Stingers can all finish top, but Lions can’t. The best Lions can hope for is 3^rd spot and a double chance if they beat Duff and Angels beat Stingers. Stingers get top possie if they win and Duff loses, but drop to the EF if they lose and Arachnids win. What’re the chances of one of those matches ending in a draw…? Stingers are top of the tops, with 4 1^st place finishes, followed by Fallen Angels & Boony VB on one each.

L5.

Known – Boony VB, Stingers & South Park get the double chance. Myrniong Maggots will play in the EF.

Not Known – The other team in the EF.

Comment – Maggots (4^th) can’t go up, and can only slip to 5^th. Which leaves North Shinboners and Kaboomers to fight out the last possie. A win for Shinboners over South Park (3^rd) will keep them in, but if they lose and Kaboomers beat Boony (1^st), they will drop out. It’s unlikely the top three will change order – in order for that to happen one team would have to have a huge win, while another to have be absolutely smashed. Could happen, but won’t. In the five years of L5 so far, Stingers and South Park have each finished top twice, and Rowville Rhinos once. But maybe it’s better to not finish top – the minor premier has collected the cup only once in 5 seasons, a cup-winning percentage of 20%, compared to the overall Sim average of 36% across all six leagues.

L6.

Known – North Park finish top, Arden St Rodents finish 2nd. Bacchus Bulls & Stingers can’t miss the five.

Not Known – The last place in the five – Northcote Bombers or Covenant Keepers.

Comment – Bulls retain the double chance if they beat Murrumba Maggots, but if they lose and Stingers beat Sydney Sonics, Bulls are into the EF. Bombers only need to win to grab an EF berth, but if they lose to Croydon Tigers and Keepers beat Redhot Devils, Keepers snatch 5^th. Sth Croydon Tigers, Covenant Keepers, North Park & Stingers have all finished top once each. But in an ominous warning to North Park, none of them have gone on to win the cup.

Interesting to look at the ‘finishing top’ v ‘winning cup’ stats for L5 & L6. In 9 completed seasons for the two leagues, the top team has won the cup just once. I don’t know what it means, but it sure is an ugly stat.

2009 Mid-Season Analysis. The halfway mark of the season sees two teams – Lager in L3 and Duff in L4 – undefeated. It is quite rare for a team to be 9-0 – in fact it has happened only 9 times before this year in the 46 completed Sim seasons. Normally L1 leads the way in these sorts of stats, simply because it has been going for 17 years, compared to 9 for L2 etc, 8 for L3 etc. So it’s surprising that L2 has had the most teams on 9-0 – Zsi Zsi Warriors, Brewers, Square Bears and Supreme Beings. And they all occurred in the first five years of the league. L1 comes next with Greeneville, Tigers & Devils, while Coongulla Pirates in L3 and Stingers in L6 have also achieved the feat. This is the first year that an L4 team has done it, while L5 is still waiting. No team has managed it twice, but George is the second owner to do it with two teams in the same season – CD was first in 2001 with Tigers in L1 & Zsi Zsi Warriors in L2.

It’s all very nice sitting on top of the ladder after Round 9, but as we all know – because every AFL coach tells us half a dozen times through the season - it’s a marathon, not a sprint. As part of the huge statistical analysis of all things Sim that I’m still putting together, I thought it would be interesting to look at how the top team performs AFTER Round 9. You can view a new stats page – Round 9 Analysis – from the History of Sim index.

So, is it a good thing to be top after Round 9? Statistically, the answer is definitely NO, as far as winning the cup is concerned. From the 46 completed Sim seasons, the top team after Round 9 has gone on to win the cup only 8 times – a 17.4% win ratio. Five of those times were in L1, with Devils claiming 3 of them and Greeneville & Tigers one each. Supreme Beings did it in L2, Entropy in L3 and Fallen Angels in L4. No top team after Round 9 has ever won the cup in L5 or L6.

There is some good news though. If you are top after Round 9, you have a 63% chance of making the GF. 29 from 46 have done it. But of those 29, 21 have lost. That’s quite an amazing statistic. And it differs wildly between leagues. In L6, the Round 9 leader has lost the GF in all 4 seasons of the league, while in L4 you want to pray that you’re not top after Round 9. Only once out of 6 seasons has the halfway leader made the GF.

If the top team after Round 9 can still be top after Round 18, their chances of a cup improve greatly. 6 of the 8 halfway-leader cup winners have also finished the season top of the ladder. So for those teams on top after Round 9, it boils down to this: if you finish top after Round 18, you are a firm favourite to win the cup, but if you don’t finish top you’re going to have to be very lucky to win it. Interestingly, the league with the best cup winning ratio for halfway leaders is L1, at 31.3%……

A look at the leagues:

L1 – It looks like a six-horse race, with Devils in 7^th place, 3 games behind 6^th and struggling. The top six is a raffle, although the Aliens camp believe their 2-game buffer should at least get them a top-3 finish. Tigers are lurking ominously as usual, while Coongulla Jacks are poised to pounce on their first top five finish. Could be an awesome R18.

L2 – Anything could happen here. 6^th placed Pistons are only 2 wins from top and there’s a lot going on in between. I’m going to rule out Cyber Pigs, although they are definitely on the improve and will win again this year. But even 9^th placed Things are not that far from 5^th, and we know they are capable of big scores. Guelphoids in 8^th place have never missed the top 5 in 8 years of L2… challenges could come from everywhere.

L3 – Cup holders Lager continue on their merry undefeated way, although it must be said they have had a few close scrapes and perhaps 9-0 flatters them a bit. But you can only win, and they’ve done it 3 more times than the next best. The big battle is the next 6, who are within a game of each other and all have percentages over 100. 4 places for 6 teams….

L4 – Duff look pretty secure at top, but from there it’s pretty much a step down at a time, with each team no more than a game behind the team above it, apart from Canals and Cowboys, who are in re-building phases. Ladders like this are very unpredictable. Depending on the draw, you can have big gaps open, or all the teams tighten up, in a single round. And a few teams have had big form fluctuations. I’ll leave this to Nostrodamus.

L5 – Boony looks safe for top-3, but there are still 9 other teams battling for 4 places. Even lowly Elevation can rise up the ladder, so I can’t write anyone off. Given that South Park has made 4 of 5 L5 cup GFs, I’ll stick them in the five, and Rhinos have a habit of stampeding into the finals, so I’ll give them a berth. That leaves 2 spots for 7 teams. Go for it.

L6 – It looks like a fairly even ladder, but I’ll stick my neck out and suggest the bottom 3 are out of it. It’s hard to know what to make of the rest. Stingers are 4^th at 5-4, yet they have easily scored the highest “points for”. Bulls and North Park have been impressive and could probably expect to finish 1-2, but after that it’s a toss up. The league has a history of upsets and you can expect them to continue.

2008 Season Wrap. As usual, it was a mixed bag of big improvers and big backsliders, highlights and lowlights, agony and ecstasy. As I continue to slowly put together the massive statistical program that has been two years in the making and will probably take another year to complete, some amazing facts have emerged, mainly in the lowlight/agony area. A few of them are included in this season summary.

L1. Tigers collected their second consecutive cup, and fourth overall, to continue a massive era of success. They have played in 11 consecutive cup campaigns since 1998, contesting 8 GFs (9 if you count a draw), finishing top 7 times, second 3 times and third once. This puts them one year away from equalling Devils’ record of 12 successive top-five finishes which began in 1996 and came to an end this year when they finished sixth. Mention should also be made of M & P Union, who have notched 9 consecutive top-five appearances since 2000. Which brings us to the agony. Since 2002 M & P have played in 15 cup finals, winning just 3. And in that time they have finished top-three and gone out in straight sets 3 times. But if you think that’s bad, look at Coodabeens. This year was their sixth cup GF appearance… and their sixth loss. And they keep doing it in pairs, against the same opponents. They lost to Fokkers in 1993/94, Devils in 2003/4 and now Tigers in 2007/08. And they also lost their only shield GF. It’s a wonder that sharp objects are allowed in Wes’s house…

L2. Supreme Beings consolidated their place as L2 supremo with their fourth cup, and second in a row. That means they have won half of the cups in the eight-year history of L2. Four other teams have each won one. Guelphoids are the only foundation team that has finished top-five every season – a run of 8 not out. Cyber Pigs continue to set records that no other team can even approach. In eight years they have collected six spoons. In seven of those seasons they have won a total of 9.5 games, the exception being 2002 when they miraculously made the cup GF after winning 12.5 games. More wins in one season than the other seven seasons combined – hmmm.

L3. Lager FC moved to the top of the tree in L3 with their third cup, eclipsing Entropy’s two. Lager is also the only foundation team to finish top-five in each of the seven seasons of L3. Stingers have had an eventful 3 years in the league, losing the shield GF in their first year, and now losing the last 2 cup GFs. To add insult to injury, they drew the GF this year after playing an unqualified player, before losing the replay. Ouch. And a mention to Hamley Jackals, who have lost all 3 of their shield GFs.

L4. Fallen Angels reign supreme in L4, winning their third cup this year. They too have won half of the cups available in the six years of the league, with one apiece to 3 other teams. Stingers are the only foundation team to have finished top-five every year. If there are two words Duff FC hates, they are “Fallen Angels”. All 3 of Angels’ cup GF wins have been over Duff, and just for good measure they also beat them for the shield in 2005. August must be a tormenting time for Stingers. In 2003, the first year of L4, they finished top and won the inaugural cup. But since then things have gone horribly wrong. Three times they have topped the ladder, then gone out in straight sets, as well as another straight sets exit from third position.

L5. Boony VB won their first L5 cup to join two other teams trailing the two won by Rowville Rhinos. The evenness of L5 is demonstrated by the fact that no team has managed to make the top five in all five years of the league. North Shinboners, Stingers, South Park and Rhinos have all made 4 appearances, with Rhinos having the best run, making it for the last 4 seasons. Surely the unluckiest team in Sim history is South Park. Coodas may have lost 6 cup GFs in L1, but that has been over 16 years. South Park have lost the last 3, and 4 in 5 years, including one by a single point. And in the other year they lost the shield GF. That’s just hideous.

L6. North Park are the rulers in L6 after winning their second cup. Perhaps it’s justice, considering the plight of their consortium partner in L5. Only Northcote Bombers have made the top five in each of the 4 years of L6. In a very tight league, eight different teams have finished in the top 3 in just 4 years. And an interesting little hoodoo is forming – no team has won the cup after finishing top that season.

30/07/08. Interesting to look back on the situation at this time last year (below). As it was last season, only one of the six leagues has the final five teams already decided – in this case it’s L2. Here’s a rundown of the battles for Sim supremacy.

L1.

Known – Coodabeens will play in the Qualifying Final (QF); Bushrangers will play in the Elimination Final (EF).

Unknown – 5^th place. If Redhot Buffalos beat Coongulla Jacks, they stay 5^th. But if they lose and Devils beat Bushrangers, Devils snatch 5^th.

Comments – Tigers can’t finish lower than 2^nd; Coodabeens can’t finish higher than 2^nd; M & P Union can finish from top to 3^rd. If Devils fail to make the five, it will be the first time ever, after entering the league in 1996.

L2.

Known – Supreme Beings will finish top; Winton Swamp Things and Brewers will play in the QF; Guelphoids and Hawkesbury Bulls will play in the EF.

Comments - Yes, mathematically Square Bears could grab 5^th if they smashed Beings and Bulls were smashed by Swamp Things, but it ain’t gonna happen. Bears have to make up a points differential of 179 points – 30 goals. So even if Things won by 20 goals, which is possible, Bears would then have to win by 10, which would be a massive turnaround on the 21 goals by which they were outscored by Beings last week. Maybe if Bears had a bloke called Lazarus in their team…

L3.

Known – Pretty well nothing.

Unknown – Pretty well everything.

Comments – Coongulla Pirates retain top place if they win, but if they lose and Lager FC win, Lager goes to top. Supernova stays 3^rd if they win, but if they lose and Leopold Lions win, they drop to 4^th. Stingers stay 5^th if they win, but if they lose and Windy Hill Wonders win, they are out and Wonders are in.

Comments – Leopold Lions v Stingers is an ultra crunch match.

L4.

Known – Absolutely nothing.

Unknown – Absolutely everything.

Comments – Stingers stay top if they win, but drop to 2^nd if they lose and Fallen Angels win. If Angels lose they stay second. Far Canals stay 3^rd if they win, but drop to 4^th if they lose and Duff FC wins. Then comes the fun bit. Marsh Maggots, Altona Arachnids and Wizards are separated by percentage. All 3 play teams above them on the ladder. For Wizards to grab 5^th, they need to win while the other two lose. If Maggots win, you would have to fancy their chances of staying 5^th, because Arachnids would have to make up a 77 point differential. So even if Maggots won by a single point, Arachnids would have to win by about 13 goals to overtake them on percentage. Obviously if any one team won while the other two lost, that team would claim 5^th.

L5.

Known – Stingers will finish top; South Park will play in the QF; North Shinboners can’t drop out of the five.

Unknown – 3^rd to 6^th places.

Comments – If Shinboners win they stay 3^rd and play in the QF. If they lose they could drop to 5^th. If Boony VB win they stay in the five and could grab a QF berth. If they lose they could drop to 6^th. Same goes for Rowville Rhinos – a win makes them safe in the five with a chance to play in the QF, while a loss potentially drops them to 6^th. Black Friday Rule need to win to have a chance, while hoping either Boony or Rhinos lose. In the interesting scenario of Boony losing by a point or two, Friday would need to win by about two goals to overtake them on percentage. You would think Rhinos would be pretty confident of winning, given their opponents – Myrniong Maggots – only managed 8 goals last week. But Rhinos only managed 7… every goal will be golden.

L6.

Known – The top 4 are safe in the five.

Unknown – 5^th place.

Comments – Stingers stay top if they win, and can’t go lower than 3^rd, probably 2^nd. Bacchus Bulls can go to top with a win, but can’t miss the QF if they lose. Arden St Rodents would have to win big and Stingers lose big to grab top spot, while a loss and a North Park win would see them drop into the EF, with Park grabbing a QF berth. Sydney Sonics only have to win to stay 5^th, but if they lost and Northcote Bombers won, Bombers would take 5^th. Sonics play the top team and Bombers play 2^nd…

There will be jubilation and desolation after the weekend’s matches. Remember what they say – It’s not whether you win or lose, but how you play the game.

Obviously ‘they’ are bloody idiots.

01/08/07. August means finals time in Sim, and with one round to go there are many teams that still have aspirations to challenge for the cup. In L1 the five cup combatants are already known, but in the other five leagues all sorts of scenarios are possible.

L1.

Fact – Coodabeens will finish fifth.

Key Games – Daysdale v Bushrangers, Tigers v M & P Union, Redhot Buffalos v Devils.

Any of the top four – M & P, Bushrangers, Tigers & Devils – can finish as high as top and as low as fourth. A week’s rest and a double chance or a cut-throat elimination final - what a difference a win makes. If M & P win, they stay top and Tigers look destined for fourth – assuming Devils beat Buffalos. But if Tigers knock off M & P, all hell breaks loose. Bushrangers would need to beat Daysdale to save the double chance, and Daysdale have recently been doing some damage to top-five teams. And Devils could leap from fourth to top by gaining a bit of percentage on Tigers. And let’s not forget that Devils are going for a totally sick five cups in a row.

L2.

Fact – Guelphoids & Square Bears will occupy the top two places.

Key Games – Hawkesbury Bulls v Square Bears, Redhot Pythons v Supreme Beings.

I’ll make two perfectly reasonable assumptions here (no disrespect intended) – Filthy Animals will beat Cyber Pigs and Brewers will beat Fearless Warriors. That means that Hawkesbury Bulls must win to stay in the five. Well almost. Brewers could win by a few points in a high-scoring game and Bulls could lose by a few points in a low-scoring game and their percentages would be very close. The only other possible change would be for Animals to take third spot from Supreme Beings, who would need to lose to those mighty, fantastic, marauding Redhot Pythons. Go you Pythons!!!

L3.

Fact – Stingers & Windy Hill Wonders will occupy the top two places.

Key Games – Windy Hill Wonders v Supernova, Coongulla Pirates v Stingers, Lager FC v Leopold Lions.

It’s down to six teams, and by a delightful quirk of the draw they all play each other. There are two battles going on – for third spot and fifth spot. Pirates are only 2% ahead of Lions, so even if both teams win or both lose, the percentage gap could be closed if Lions perform better in respect to their opposition than Pirates do. Obviously if one team won and the other lost, they would take positions three and four respectively. Which brings us to position five. Lager FC occupies it, and if they win they stay there. Supernova must win and hope Lions defeat Lager. So the battle for fifth is nicely intertwined with the battle for third.

L4.

Fact – Duff FC & Fallen Angels will occupy the top two places. Redhot Panthers & Stingers will occupy the third & fourth places.

Key Games – Far Canals v Marsh Maggots, Darley Bulls v Fallen Angels, Duff FC v Altona Arachnids.

It’s a three-way battle for fifth between Far Canals, Altona Arachnids and Darley Bulls, with just 3% separating the three of them. Arachnids & Bulls play the two top teams, so it appears Canals have the easier match, plus they have a coach. But there are all sorts of possible outcomes, including this interesting one – all three teams lose, Canals & Arachnids by about 10 goals, and Bulls by a few points. Bulls would jump from seventh to fifth on percentage for losing. In the battle for third spot, Panthers only have to win to hold on, while Stingers need to win and hope Wizards upset Panthers.

L5.

Fact – Rowville Rhinos will finish top. South Park & Myrniong Maggots can’t drop out of the five.

Key Games – North Shinboners v Stingers, Boony VB v Radical Rebels.

It’s been tight all year and it will end up very tight, but the equations for round 18 are actually very simple due to the luck of the draw. The winners of the two key games make the five, the losers don’t, end of story. Because all four sides are on nine wins, two must go to ten, but two must remain on nine (of course a draw would be really interesting!). So as far as actually making the five goes, percentage is irrelevant – 10 wins gets you there. Park and Maggots only have to win to keep the double chance, but a loss – particularly to Maggots – could earn them a place in the elimination final.

L6.

Fact – North Park & Northcote Bombers will occupy the top two places. Murrumba Maggots & Stingers can’t drop out of the five.

Key Games – North Park v Covenant Keepers, Redhot Devils v No Fear.

Keepers are fifth and if they win they stay in the five, and get a crack at a double chance if Maggots lose. But Devils will be hoping North Park prevails, and they beat No Fear, in which case they will grab fifth spot. If you looked at the ladder you’d see that Keepers play the top team and Devils play the bottom team – advantage Devils. But if you looked at last week’s scores, you’d see top team North Park kicked 12 goals and spooners No Fear kicked 21. A truly perplexing situation, don’t you agree? If Maggots win they keep the double chance but a loss would leave them very vulnerable.

Good luck to all, especially those teams with the word “Pythons” in their name.